Incumbents gain or lose a percent or two depending on how local college football team fares

AIPNews.com

America's Forum - 'We are the Media!'

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5j7VKn3vak0Tt5ptamvcVLGI4VFkwD9GP2NKO0

The paper has not yet been added to the scientific journal's website , but an earlier working paper detailing the research is available from Stanford website:

Healy, Andrew, Neil Malhotra, and Cecilia Mo. "Do Irrelevant Events Affect Voters' Decisions? Implications for Retrospective Voting." Stanford Graduate School of Business Working Paper No. 2034, November 3, 2009 -- http://www.stanford.edu/%7Eneilm/wp5.pdf

The authors conclude that the difference is not due to any change in turnout, but rather to the changed decision of individuals who would have voted anyway. The effect was seen in presidential, gubernatorial, and U.S. Senate elections.